GBP SONIA swap rates have continued their slow grind higher. The 5-year swap is now around 4.2–4.3% depending on source, up roughly a quarter of a point since late June; the 2-year sits a touch lower at around 4.1–4.2%. This week’s move was small — a few basis points at most — but the direction has been consistently upward for three weeks.

What’s notable is that buy-to-let fixed-rate pricing hasn’t followed yet. Our checks of limited-company BTL product ranges this week found no new launches, withdrawals or repricings — lenders are still offering the same 5-year fixes they were in late June, despite funding costs having risen meaningfully underneath them. Margins are being compressed rather than passed on, which tends not to last.

Our read: if swaps hold at these levels or keep rising, the next round of BTL product reissues is more likely to price up than down. For anyone holding a mortgage offer on a 5-year fix agreed before this move, the case for keeping it — rather than waiting for something cheaper to appear — looks stronger this week, not weaker. Bank of England base rate remains at 3.75%.

Not advice - for our own record. This is an internal market note kept by BSL Property Ltd to track conditions relevant to our own property investments. It is general commentary only, not financial, mortgage, investment, tax or other professional advice, not a personal recommendation, and not a financial promotion or an offer of any product. Any rate levels mentioned are approximate, are our own summary of publicly reported market conditions, may be out of date, and are not quotes available to you. Always obtain advice from an FCA-authorised adviser before making any borrowing or investment decision. BSL Property Ltd is not authorised or regulated by the FCA.